USDA’s Crop Progress report for the week ended May 19 reported 51% of intended acres remain unplanted since USDA began this report, surpassing the prior highest number of 47%. The five-year average for planted acres at this point in the season is 80%.
Soybeans also are well behind average at 19% complete versus 47% the past five years.
In our area, Iowa is in the best shape, while South Dakota is in the worst.
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CORN PLANTED
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SOYBEANS PLANTED
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May 19
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5-year average
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May 19
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5-year average
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Iowa
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70
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89
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27
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55
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Kansas
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61
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80
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17
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29
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Nebraska
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70
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86
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40
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54
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South Dakota
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19
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76
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4
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39
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18 States
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49
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80
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19
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49
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Only 19% of the corn crop has emerged, compared with a 49% average, while soybeans are 5% emerged versus 17% on average.
Nebraska had the most days suitable for fieldwork in the week at 5.0. There were only 2.7 days suitable in Iowa, 3.8 in Kansas, and 3.3 in South Dakota. The current week has started with saturated fields, widespread rains and cool temperatures across the region.
With corn’s final planting date for crop insurance looming on May 31, the Climate Prediction Center puts the probability of rain from May 26-30 at well above normal through the Corn Belt.
The following time period (May 28-June 6) also favors rain.
Corn futures closed Monday at their highest price in nearly a year and wheat prices reached their highest level in three months on continued wet weather. The soybean market is less concerned about the U.S. crop given South America’s large harvest, reduced demand from China, where the African Swine Fever has cut the swine herd, and the impact of tariffs on U.S. exports.
Marketing advisory services point out that managed money traders have been holding large amounts of short positions, meaning they expected prices to fall. They held more than 483,000 contracts for the week of May 14 (see chart from ycharts.com). If they remain convinced this year’s crop will fall short of expectations because acres aren’t planted, they will buy back their short positions, contributing further to futures price strength.
This could be a year when Revenue Protection insurance shines with its opportunity for coverage to increase if fall prices rise, allowing producers to forward price their crop with the knowledge that the insurance will help cover bushels contracted but not grown. For more, visit fcsamerica.com.
