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Rain Makes Grain

Crop progress continues to run ahead of average, although relatively low percentages have reached reproductive stage in the states we serve:

 

Corn silking
(2018 vs avg)

Soybeans blooming
(2018 vs avg)

Sorghum headed
(2018 vs avg)

Spring wheat headed
(2018 vs avg)

Reported states

5%

3%

12%

5%

20%

21%

34%

27%

Iowa

-

-

4

2

NA

NA

NA

NA

Kansas

13

8

7

1

4

2

NA

NA

Nebraska

2

-

14

6

2

1

NA

NA

South Dakota

33

18

2

3

-

1

67

52

 

Corn condition exceeds the past four years and soybean condition matches 2014 and 2016, both of which exceed 2015 and 2017. Note that two of the past years saw minor changes in corn and bean condition through the season and in two years it worsened considerably.

crop progress - corn 2018

crop progress - soybeans 2018

However, yields did not necessarily follow suit. Even though the condition started out lower and then worsened, the 2017 yield exceed the 2014 yields for both corn and beans. 

Corn

Soybeans

Stable condition

2014

2016

2014

2016

Bu./acre

171

174.6

47.5

52

Worsening

2015

2017

2015

2017

Bu./acre

168.4

176.6

48

49.1

 

Grain Sorghum

In the 11 reporting states, 95 percent of the grain sorghum has been planted and 20 percent is heading, compared with 91 percent and 21 percent respectively. Condition is rated good/excellent for 56 percent of the crop and 12 percent poor/very poor. Conditions in the states we serve:

     Kansas: 63 percent good/excellent; 6 percent poor/very poor
     Nebraska: 83 percent; 1 percent
     South Dakota: 90 percent; 1 percent

Sunflowers

Sunflower planting is three percentage points ahead of average, at 91 percent in the four reported states. Kansas is 82 percent complete (average 77) and South Dakota is 87 percent complete (84 average).

Spring wheat

South Dakota’s spring wheat condition is worse than the six-state average -- 57 percent is rated good/excellent compared with 77 percent for the six states; 10 percent is rated poor/very poor, double the six-state average.

Winter wheat

Winter wheat harvest has reached 41 percent in the 18 states, well ahead of the 33 percent average for this time of year. Due to dry weather, Kansas is 20 points ahead of average, at 52 percent. Harvest is right on average in Nebraska and South Dakota – 1 percent and zero.

Condition is 12 points behind last year at this time, with 37 percent good/excellent this year compared with 49 percent last year. This year’s bottom two ratings total 34 percent, compared with only 16 percent last year. Only 16 percent of the Kansas crop is in the top two ratings, with 46 percent in the bottom two.

Weather conditions

rainfall june 18-24 2018Recent rains have added to soil moisture. As the map from AgWeb shows, ample rains have fallen in the past week in much of our service area.

USDA reports that in the 48 contiguous states, 79 percent of corn has adequate to surplus topsoil moisture, while 26 percent are short or very short. This compares with 69 percent and 31 percent last year at this time. In Iowa, 25 percent of acres have too much water and in Nebraska, 8 percent. Kansas has the most acres – 31 percent -- experiencing a water shortage  despite good rains in the last week in some areas.

The Climate Prediction Center’s six- to 10-day outlook shows a high probability of above-average temperatures but also modestly higher odds of rain than normal in most of our states. 

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