COMMON GROUND BLOG

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Record Production On Tap

Corn and soybean condition ratings are stable in the 18 states USDA reports. In the states served by Farm Credit Services of America, Nebraska improved a point in the poor/very poor categories of each crop.

A third of the corn crop is mature, just a point ahead of the five-year average, and 87 percent is dented, four points ahead of average.  

State

Good/Excellent (percent)

Poor/Very Poor (percent)

 

Sept. 11

Aug. 28

Sept. 11

Aug. 28

18 States

74

74

7

7

Iowa

83

83

4

4

Nebraska

74

74

6

7

South Dakota

52

52

18

18


Soybeans

Twenty-six percent of soybeans in the 18 states are dropping leaves. That’s one point ahead of the five-year average for this week of the year.

State

Good/Excellent (percent)

Poor/Very Poor (percent)

 

Sept. 11

Aug. 28

Sept. 11

Aug. 28

18 States

73

73

7

7

Iowa

82

82

4

4

Nebraska

77

77

4

5

South Dakota

60

59

13

13


USDA’s Supply / Demand Report

Corn and soybean prices finished the day lower after USDA’s September supply/demand report, while wheat increased modestly.

Corn yield was reduced slightly, to 174.4 bu./acre, and production is forecast at 15.093 billion bushels, down 61 million from last month. In addition, corn supplies for 2016/17 were dropped, but at 16.859 billion bushels, will still be a record.  USDA also reduced corn ending stocks from its August estimate, but the 2.384 billion estimate would be the highest since 1987/88 if it materializes. Season-average cash price improved a nickel on both ends of the range to $2.90-$3.50/bu.

Grain sorghum production is forecast at 488 million bushels, up 14 million from last month and carry-out increased from 51 million to 55 million. Prices are projected to average $2.75-$3.35/bu.

Soybean yields, on the other hand, were increased from 48.9 bu./acre to 50.6 bu./acre and production is expected to reach a record 4.201 billion bushels, up 141 from last month. Supplies also increase, and despite higher crush and exports, ending stocks are projected at 365 million bushels, up 35 million from last month. USDA projects the season-average soybean price at $8.30-$9.80/bu., down a nickel on each side of the range.

The increase in wheat prices isn’t clearly linked to changes in USDA’s balance table, which was unchanged from last month. However, USDA now projects the price range at $3.30-$3.90.

Bottom line: More than ample supplies will be looking for a home as harvest ramps up. “Producers will need to ramp up their marketing,” Steven Johnson, Iowa State University farm and agriculture business management specialist, told several Farm Credit Services of America staffers today. “Storing and hoping needs to be replaced by merchandizing – separating futures prices and basis and taking advantage of opportunities when they arise.” 

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FCSAmerica serves farmers, ranchers, agribusinesses and rural residents in Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota and Wyoming. For inquiries outside this geography, use the Farm Credit Association Locator  to contact your local office.