COMMON GROUND BLOG

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A Tidal Wave of Grain on the Way?

Corn condition in the 18 states USDA reports slipped one point in the week ended Sept. 6 – not enough to elicit even a yawn from the market. In the states served by Farm Credit Services of America, only Nebraska saw a one-point drop in good/excellent and the same size increase in poor/very poor. 

Eighteen percent of the 18-state crops is mature, 76% is dented and 96% is in the dough stage.

State

Good/Excellent

Poor/Very Poor

 

Sept. 4

Aug. 28

Sept. 4

Aug. 28

18 States

74

75

7

7

Iowa

83

83

4

4

Nebraska

74

75

7

6

South Dakota

52

52

18

18

 

Soybeans

Soybean ratings in the 18 states were unchanged. As was the case for corn, Nebraska was the only state showing a change in rating: It worsened by one point in the poor/very poor categories.

Twelve percent of beans are dropping leaves, while 97 percent – equal to the five-year average – are setting pods.

State

 

Good/Excellent

Poor/Very Poor

 

Sept. 4

Aug. 28

Sept. 4

Aug. 28

18 States

73

73

7

7

Iowa

82

82

4

4

Nebraska

77

77

5

4

South Dakota

59

59

13

13

 

Weather outlook

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration favors warmer than normal weather on the West Coast and from the East Coast through half of Illinois and through Louisiana this month. Most of the country has equal chances for normal, above or below normal rainfall, though the East Coast, Minnesota, most of Wisconsin, Iowa and the eastern half of the Dakotas and Nebraska could see more than normal rain for September. 

The CPC’s three-month outlook (September-November) indicates odds favor warmer than usual temperatures for the entire country, and no tendency regarding rain for the Midwest.

Storage Demands

These outlooks suggest smooth sailing through harvest, particularly in the states we serve. Should that prove true – and the crop is as large as anticipated – lines could form at elevators. The percentage of storage filled nationwide could set a record at nearly 99% of capacity, by some accounts. Here’s why: USDA estimates a 2.3-billion-bushel wheat crop, 4.1 billion soybean crop and 15.2 billion corn crop. Add remaining grain already in storage from last year, and more than 24 billion bushels of these crops may need to be stowed away.

Kansas, with a large wheat crop binned and more corn this year on the way, could be almost 20 percent short of bin space and Nebraska, more than 10 percent. Even South Dakota farmers may face a slight surplus of grain supplies over storage space. Iowa’s supply of grain should about match its available storage.

Prepare now!

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FCSAmerica serves farmers, ranchers, agribusinesses and rural residents in Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota and Wyoming. For inquiries outside this geography, use the Farm Credit Association Locator  to contact your local office.