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Drop Expected in Corn and Soybean Production

USDA’s weekly crop progress and crop conditions report found little change. Corn is rated 10 percent poor/very poor and 68 percent good/excellent. Poor ratings are relatively high in important Eastern Corn Belt states, possibly reducing yields in what normally are the highest production states. Last year at this time, poor/very poor was only 7 percent and good/excellent was 74 percent.

While the percentage of mature corn is six points behind average, at 20 percent, in the 18 largest grain producing states, dough state and dent stage are each one point ahead of average, at 96 and 76 percent respectively. Because the northern tier states are running well ahead of average (North Dakota, 69 percent dented versus the average of 67 percent, and Minnesota, 85 versus 70 percent, for instance), early frost is not of much concern this year.

Soybeans still are rated 63 percent good/excellent and 11 percent poor/very poor, with most of the poorer ratings in the Eastern Corn Belt, Missouri, Louisiana and North Carolina. Last year’s ratings were only 4 percent in the bottom two categories and 72 percent in the top two.  Pod setting is 3 points behind average at 96 percent, while leaf drop is two points ahead of average at 18 percent in the 18 states.

Production Supply/Demand Report

Analysts expect the USDA on Friday to reduce slightly its August production estimate for corn and soybeans. The average corn production estimate in surveys of analysts is 13.484 billion bushels (range, 13.057-13.87), down from USDA’S August projection of 13.686, and soybeans, 3.481 billion (range, 3.735-3.935), down from USDA’s 3.916 billion in August.

Analysts also see slightly tighter carryout for the 2015/16 season. They anticipate 1.609 billion bushels of corn, down from the USDA August estimate of 1.713, and 424 million bushels of soybeans, compared with 470 estimated in August. While these expectations are for reductions, the soybean number would still be well above the crop year just ended. (USDA carryout projections in August for the 2014/15 crop were 1.772 billion bushels of corn and 240 million bushels of soybeans.) 

Crop Insurance

Our crop insurance specialists remind producers to complete any changes for forage and wheat coverage by Sept. 30, 2015. Pasture and range condition is rated at 19 percent poor/very poor and 48 percent good/excellent this week, very close to last year at this time.

Other September reminders:

  • Report bale counts and weight slips from two bales per cutting for forage policies.
  • Call your agent before cutting even a portion of your silage. Also call if you plan to graze fields.
  • Contact your insurance specialist for a measurement before co-mingling new and old crops in bins.
  • Even if you’ve elected your farm bill program, you need to do your annual enrollment at FSA.
  • Pay spring crop premium if you haven’t already. After Sept. 30, interest kicks in.


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